The Maldives’ economy demonstrated robust growth in the first quarter of 2024, with the Quarterly National Accounts report released by the Maldives Bureau of Statistics highlighting significant economic improvements across various sectors. This analysis provides an overview of the key findings and trends observed in the Q1 2024 GDP data, reflecting the nation’s economic resilience and growth trajectory.
Key Highlights:
• Real GDP Growth: The real GDP at market prices for Q1 2024 was recorded at MVR 27,363 million, marking an 8.8% increase from the preceding quarter (Q4 2023) and a 9.8% growth compared to Q1 2023. This growth illustrates a steady economic recovery and expansion.
• Sector Contributions:
• Tourism: The tourism sector continued to be a cornerstone of the Maldivian economy, contributing 2.3% to the overall GDP growth. The sector’s Gross Value Added (GVA) for Q1 2024 stood at MVR 6,751 million, reflecting a 9.3% increase from Q1 2023.
• Transportation and Communication: This sector also played a vital role, contributing 2.1% to GDP growth. The GVA for Q1 2024 was MVR 3,372 million, showcasing an impressive 18.2% growth year-on-year. The expansion was attributed to increased telecommunication services and transportation activities.
• Wholesale and Retail Trade: Contributing 0.7% to GDP growth, this sector’s GVA for Q1 2024 was MVR 2,043 million, marking a 9.9% increase compared to Q1 2023. However, it experienced a 6.3% decline from the preceding quarter due to a reduction in import goods.
• Financial Services: The financial services sector’s GVA was MVR 1,750 million for Q1 2024, with an 8.8% growth year-on-year and a 4.4% increase from Q4 2023. The growth was driven by enhanced financial intermediation and insurance services.
• Electricity and Water Supply: This sector recorded a GVA of MVR 678 million, with a notable 14.2% growth compared to Q1 2023, supported by the expansion of electricity production and water distribution.
• Construction: The construction sector saw a GVA of MVR 1,017 million, representing a 2.2% growth from Q1 2023 but a 12.8% decline from Q4 2023, primarily due to fluctuations in the import of building materials.
Comparative Analysis and Historical Trends:
The Q1 2024 GDP growth rate of 9.8% is a continuation of the positive trends observed since Q2 2021, following the negative impacts of the COVID-19 pandemic. Each quarter since then has shown progressive growth, reflecting the resilience and recovery of the Maldivian economy. The real GDP has been rebased to the year 2019, ensuring the accuracy and relevance of these economic assessments.
Revisions and Data Reliability:
The report also included revisions analysis to assess the reliability of the quarterly national accounts. The Mean Revision (MR) was calculated at 0.17, indicating a slight upward bias in preliminary estimates. The Mean Absolute Revision (MAR) was 0.45, and the Standard Deviation of Revision (STDR) was 0.76, reflecting moderate reliability and stability in the estimates provided.
The Maldives’ Q1 2024 GDP data paints a promising picture of economic growth and resilience. With significant contributions from tourism, transportation, and communication sectors, the economy is on a solid path of recovery and expansion. Continuous monitoring and strategic initiatives will be crucial in sustaining this growth trajectory and addressing any emerging challenges.
