A Study predicts best-case scenario to leave 15 million deaths and a $2.4 trillion hit to global GDP

A study made by the Australian experts predicts the best-case scenario for the outbreak of COVID-19 to cause 15 million deaths and $2.4 trillion in lost global gross domestic product.

New modeling from the Australian National University looks at seven scenarios of how the COVID-19 outbreak might affect the world’s wealth, ranging from low severity to high severity.

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But even in the low-severity model — or best-case scenario, which the paper acknowledged were not definitive — ANU researchers estimate a global GDP loss of $2.4 trillion, with an estimated death toll of 15 million. They modeled their estimates on the Hong Kong flu pandemic, an outbreak in 1968-1969 that is estimated to have killed about 1 million people.

In the high-severity model — modeled after the Spanish flu pandemic, which killed an estimated 17 million to 50 million globally from 1918 to 1920 — the global GDP loss could be as high as $9 trillion. In that model, the death toll is estimated to surpass 68 million.

The research aims to help policymakers respond to the economic impact of COVID-19 as the disease continues to spread.

While there are no confirmed cases of COVID-19 in the Maldives yet, the government continues to take precautionary measures with the continuation of testing for any suspected cases.

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