A major disruption to shipping through the Strait of Hormuz is raising concerns over global food security, fertiliser costs and agricultural production, with import-dependent economies such as the Maldives likely to face indirect pressure through higher prices and supply chain volatility.
Máximo Torero, Chief Economist of the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations, warned at a UN daily press briefing that the disruption has developed into one of the most serious shocks to global commodity flows in recent years. He said tanker traffic through the Strait of Hormuz had fallen by more than 90 percent within days of the escalation.
The Strait is one of the world’s most important trade corridors. It normally carries around 20 million barrels of oil per day, about 35 percent of global crude oil flows, as well as one-fifth of global liquefied natural gas and up to 30 percent of internationally traded fertilisers. Any prolonged restriction in the corridor could therefore affect not only energy prices, but also the cost of agricultural inputs and food production.
Torero said the crisis should not be viewed only as an energy shock, but as a wider disruption affecting agrifood systems. The Gulf region also accounts for nearly half of global sulphur trade, a key input used in the production of sulphuric acid, which is needed to process phosphate rock into fertilisers. Disruptions to sulphur supply could affect phosphate fertiliser production in major producing countries.
Shipping risks have also increased sharply. According to Torero, war-risk insurance premiums rose from 0.25 percent to as much as 10 percent of vessel value after high-risk zones were expanded in early March. He warned that even if tensions ease, normal shipping conditions could take months to return.
The immediate concern for global agriculture is the rise in input costs. Middle East granular urea prices increased by 19 percent in the first week of March, while Egyptian urea prices rose by 28 percent. Since natural gas is the main feedstock for nitrogen fertilisers, higher energy prices are expected to keep fertiliser costs elevated. FAO projections indicate that global fertiliser prices could average 15 to 20 percent higher in the first half of 2026 if the disruption continues.
Torero said farmers were facing higher fertiliser and fuel costs across the agricultural value chain, including irrigation and transport. In response, some producers may reduce fertiliser use or move towards crops that require fewer inputs. Even modest cuts in fertiliser application can lead to larger declines in yields, especially in regions where usage is already low.
The duration of the disruption is expected to determine the scale of the impact. A short-term disruption of up to one month may remain manageable, as global food stocks are currently sufficient and markets could stabilise within about three months. The FAO Food Price Index also remains around 21 percent below its March 2022 peak.
However, if the disruption lasts for three months or longer, the effects could become more serious. FAO expects risks to planting decisions for 2026 and beyond, including lower yields for fertiliser-intensive crops such as wheat, rice and maize. Higher oil prices could also increase demand for agricultural feedstocks used in biofuel production, adding further competition in commodity markets.
Several countries are considered particularly exposed because of their crop cycles and import dependence. Sri Lanka is in its Maha rice harvest period, Bangladesh is in its Boro rice season, India may face pressure on domestic fertiliser production ahead of the Kharif season, and Egypt remains highly exposed through wheat imports. Sudan, already facing severe food insecurity, is also vulnerable. Somalia, Kenya, Tanzania and Mozambique are exposed due to their reliance on imported fertilisers, while major exporters such as Brazil could face production effects that feed into global markets.
For the Maldives, the implications are mainly indirect but still significant. The country depends heavily on imported food, fuel and consumer goods, leaving domestic prices sensitive to international shipping costs, energy prices and commodity market shifts. A prolonged rise in fuel and fertiliser costs could increase the price of staple imports, including rice, flour, cooking oil and other food items that are shaped by global production and freight costs.
The government has sought to reassure the public that essential supplies remain stable. The Special Cabinet Committee formed in response to tensions in the Middle East said in April that the Maldives would maintain an uninterrupted supply of essential commodities despite volatility in global markets. The committee has also said it is monitoring food, fuel and medicine supplies, while Economic Minister Mohamed Saeed has stated that the government is tracking the supply and price movements of 164 essential products in coordination with local importers.
Authorities have also acknowledged logistical pressure around imports. Local reports have cited the government as saying more than 2,500 containers of goods delayed in Sri Lanka were expected to be brought to the Maldives by three vessels, a move aimed at easing backlogs and stabilising the flow of goods.
The government’s reassurances may reduce immediate concern over shortages, but they do not remove the wider exposure faced by the Maldives. Higher shipping insurance and fuel costs could still affect import logistics, adding pressure to businesses already reliant on regular cargo flows. The Maldives does not produce enough food domestically to absorb major global price movements, which makes the country particularly exposed to external shocks even when the disruption occurs far from its own waters.
The crisis also raises broader concerns for public finances and household costs. If global fuel prices remain elevated, the impact could be felt through transport, electricity generation and government subsidy commitments. For businesses, particularly in retail, hospitality and food services, higher import costs may narrow margins or be passed on to consumers.
Torero called for coordinated action, including alternative trade corridors, emergency financial support for import-dependent countries and better access to credit for farmers. In the medium term, he said countries should diversify fertiliser import sources, strengthen regional reserves and avoid export restrictions. Over the longer term, FAO recommends investment in more input-efficient agriculture, alternative fertiliser technologies such as green ammonia, and the treatment of food systems as strategic infrastructure.
For the Maldives, the warning reinforces the need to view food security as part of economic resilience. While the country may not be directly involved in agricultural production shocks, it remains vulnerable to the prices, logistics and policy responses that follow them.
