Tourism Minister Thoriq Ibrahim has pointed to rising seat occupancy on inbound flights as a sign of sustained demand for the Maldives, even as regional disruptions reduce overall flight frequency. However, official data indicate that higher load factors have not translated into stronger tourist arrivals, with April figures showing a continued downturn.
Speaking at a press conference held by the government’s Crisis Committee, Thoriq said average seat occupancy increased from 65 percent to 70 percent last month, with several major airlines reporting sharper gains. Aeroflot’s occupancy rose to 95 percent, while Turkish Airlines reached 92 percent and Virgin Atlantic recorded 90 percent. He said the figures suggest that travellers continue to find alternative routes to the Maldives despite the impact of the Middle East conflict on aviation networks.
Yet data released by the Ministry of Tourism and Environment present a more subdued picture of demand. Tourist arrivals for the first seven days of April stood at 36,333, marking a 26 percent decline compared to the same period in 2025. The contraction follows a broader slowdown in March, where arrivals fell by 20.7 percent year-on-year, indicating that the current dip is not limited to short-term disruptions.
Cumulatively, tourist arrivals for 2026 have reached 670,102 as of 7 April, reflecting a marginal decline of 0.7 percent compared to the same period last year. While the overall drop remains modest, the sharper decline in April suggests that demand is weakening at a time when the industry would typically begin stabilising after the first quarter.
The divergence between occupancy rates and arrival numbers points to a shift in travel patterns rather than an expansion in demand. Fewer flights, operating with higher seat utilisation, can sustain load factors without increasing the absolute number of visitors. This is particularly evident in the current context, where reduced flight frequencies due to regional instability have constrained capacity.
Thoriq said the government is working to increase flight frequencies, noting that Turkish Airlines plans to raise weekly services from five to six during the summer season, with further increases under discussion. He also pointed to ongoing marketing efforts by resorts as a factor supporting continued interest in the destination.
However, the April data suggest that these measures have yet to offset the broader pressures affecting arrivals. With a 27 percent year-on-year decline recorded for the month so far, the gap between demand indicators such as seat occupancy and actual visitor volumes remains a key concern for the sector.
