Tourist arrivals to the Maldives declined sharply during the first two weeks of March, interrupting the strong momentum the tourism sector had built earlier in the year.
Statistics released by the Ministry of Tourism and Environment show that 69,648 tourists arrived between 1 and 14 March, compared with 88,274 arrivals during the same period in 2025, representing a 21.1 percent decrease.
The decline comes after a strong start to the year. January and February both recorded higher visitor numbers compared with last year, with February alone registering more than 254,000 arrivals. By mid March, total arrivals for the year had reached 542,158 tourists, an increase of around 5.8 percent compared with the same period in 2025, suggesting that the slowdown is concentrated in the most recent weeks.
Daily arrival figures illustrate the shift more clearly. The first half of March saw several days with arrivals below 5,000 visitors, compared with stronger figures earlier in the year. The daily average for tourists currently stands at around 7,427 arrivals, though the volatility of daily figures suggests a softer demand pattern emerging during the period.
The slowdown is unfolding against the backdrop of the escalating war in the Middle East involving the United States, Israel and Iran. The conflict has disrupted global travel sentiment, triggered volatility in energy markets and increased uncertainty across major long haul travel markets. For destinations such as the Maldives that rely heavily on international air connectivity, geopolitical instability often translates quickly into booking hesitations and shorter travel planning cycles.
Air travel is particularly sensitive to conflict in the Middle East because the region sits along some of the world’s most important aviation corridors linking Europe and Asia. Any disruption to airspace, fuel prices or airline scheduling can ripple across long haul tourism flows. Higher fuel prices also raise airline operating costs, which can translate into higher ticket prices or reduced flight frequencies.
The Maldives’ visitor mix means such disruptions can have an immediate impact. China remains the largest source market this year with 85,679 arrivals, accounting for 15.8 percent of visitors, followed by Russia, Italy, the United Kingdom and Germany. European markets in particular rely heavily on routes that pass through or near Middle Eastern airspace, making them vulnerable to regional instability.
Despite the softer arrivals in early March, the country’s tourism infrastructure continues to expand. As of mid March, 1,297 tourist facilities were in operation across resorts, guesthouses, hotels and safari vessels, providing a combined bed capacity of more than 68,000 beds. Resorts continue to dominate the sector, accounting for roughly 68 percent of tourist stays, followed by guesthouses at around 26 percent.
The coming weeks will be closely watched by tourism operators to see whether the decline in arrivals represents a temporary disruption or the beginning of a broader slowdown linked to global geopolitical conditions.
