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MMA Economic Update Points to Changing Tourism Mix Despite Arrival Decline

Key points
  • Maldives tourist arrivals fell 13% year-on-year in June to 123,552, yet total bednights rose 8%.
  • Guesthouse bednights surged 84% and average stays edged up to 7.1 days, sustaining accommodation demand.
  • Tourism drove Q1 real GDP growth of 3.3%, with 2026 growth projected between 4.8% and 5.3%.

The Maldives received fewer visitors in June, yet accommodation demand increased, according to the Maldives Monetary Authority’s July 2026 Economic Update. Tourist arrivals fell 13% year-on-year to 123,552, while total bednights rose 8%, showing that headline arrival numbers alone did not capture the month’s tourism performance.

The difference was led by guesthouses, where bednights rose 84% over the year. Resort bednights increased by 2%. Average visitor stays also edged up to 7.1 days in June, from 7.0 days a year earlier.

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Lower arrivals from European markets were the main reason for the overall decline, with the United Kingdom, Germany and Spain among the markets recording weaker numbers. Despite this, Russia, China, India, the UK, Germany and Italy remained the country’s largest source markets during the month.

June continued a softer first half for visitor arrivals. Total arrivals between January and June were down 6% compared with the corresponding period of 2025, although total bednights over the six months remained broadly unchanged.

The data suggests that the composition of tourism activity is becoming more important to the sector’s performance. While arrivals declined, longer stays and the strong increase in guesthouse bednights helped sustain accommodation demand.

Supply also continued to rise. Operational bed capacity was 3,465 beds higher than a year earlier, while the industry-wide occupancy rate increased to 40%, from 39% in June 2025. This indicates that demand absorbed some of the additional capacity even as visitor arrivals weakened.

Tourism remains the largest recipient of private-sector bank credit, accounting for 32% of the total. The annual increase in lending to the sector was driven by new resort development, guesthouses and resort renovations. The MMA’s data does not show a move away from resort lending towards guesthouses, but it does indicate that financing is supporting expansion across both segments.

The sector was also a main contributor to real GDP growth of 3.3% in the first quarter of 2026. Tourism is expected to remain a key driver of growth through the year, with annual real GDP growth projected between 4.8% and 5.3%.

For tourism operators and lenders, the June figures point to a more mixed outlook than the arrivals decline suggests. Recovering demand from key European markets remains important, while the rise in guesthouse activity and modestly longer stays shows how accommodation patterns are shaping the sector’s near-term performance.