With just over two weeks remaining in the year, the Maldives faces a narrowing window to reach the government’s target of 2.3 million tourist arrivals, based on the latest data released by the Ministry of Tourism and Environment.
As of 13 December, total arrivals for 2025 stood at 2,106,122. This leaves a shortfall of approximately 193,900 visitors to meet the 2.3 million target before year-end. The arithmetic now places December at the centre of the debate over whether the goal remains realistic.
During the first 13 days of December, the Maldives recorded 84,061 arrivals, averaging around 6,460 tourists per day. While this represents a 12.6 percent increase compared to the same period last year, the pace falls well below what would be required to close the remaining gap.
To reach 2.3 million arrivals, the Maldives would need to attract nearly 194,000 visitors over the remaining 18 days of December. That would require average daily arrivals of roughly 10,800 tourists, significantly higher than both the current December average and the daily averages seen throughout most of 2025.
For context, the overall daily average for arrivals this year stands at just over 6,000 visitors. Even during stronger months such as January and February, daily inflows did not approach the level now required to meet the year-end target. This suggests that, barring an unusually sharp surge in arrivals during the final weeks of December, the numbers may fall short.
December is traditionally one of the strongest months for Maldivian tourism, driven by winter travel from Europe and holiday-season demand. However, the partial data so far does not indicate a spike of the magnitude needed. While last-minute bookings and festive travel could still lift figures, the gap between current trends and the required pace remains wide.
This does not diminish the broader performance of the tourism sector in 2025. Arrivals are already more than 10 percent higher than last year, and the Maldives has surpassed the 2.1 million mark earlier than in previous years. The question now is less about growth, and more about whether headline targets were set with sufficient regard to capacity, seasonality, and realistic daily throughput.
As December progresses, the final outcome will become clearer. For now, the numbers suggest that while 2025 will close as a strong year for tourism, the 2.3 million target may prove difficult to reach unless arrival patterns shift sharply in the days ahead.
